Gwangju FC vs Pohang
K League 1, South-Korea · 2026-08-15 · 12:30 CET
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LLLLLThe score model makes an Pohang win the most likely outcome at 48%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 40%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT under 1.5 goals — 76.5% vs 72.9% implied (+3.7 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Gwangju FC 0.89 – 1.39 Pohang.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gwangju FC win | 23.0% | 22.3% | +0.7% |
| Draw | 29.1% | 29.6% | -0.5% |
| Pohang win | 47.9% | 48.1% | -0.3% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67.3% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39.8% | 38.7% | +1.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19.6% | 19.9% | -0.3% |
| Both teams to score | 45.0% | 43.7% | +1.3% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 58.3% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 23.5% | 27.1% | -3.7% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Gwangju FC 44.5 / Pohang 45 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.