Celje vs Grosuplje
Prva liga, Slovenia · 2026-11-22 · 17:30 CET
WDDWW
LLDDWThe score model makes a Celje win the most likely outcome at 72%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 62%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Celje win — 71.9% vs 65.7% implied (+6.2 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Celje 2.40 – 0.79 Grosuplje.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Celje win | 71.9% | 65.7% | +6.2% |
| Draw | 18.9% | 20.0% | -1.1% |
| Grosuplje win | 9.2% | 14.3% | -5.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.0% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.9% | 57.8% | +4.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39.6% | 38.5% | +1.1% |
| Both teams to score | 50.9% | 50.3% | +0.6% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 78.1% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 44.9% | 40.2% | +4.6% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Celje 47.4 / Grosuplje 14.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Celje vs Grosuplje in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.