Radomlje vs Koper
Prva liga, Slovenia · 2026-10-10 · 15:00 CET
DDDLL
DWWWDThe score model made a Koper win the most likely outcome at 56%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 58%). It finished 3:3 (HT 2:2) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Radomlje 1.08 – 1.95 Koper.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Radomlje win | 19.1% | 22.9% | -3.8% | ✗ |
| Draw | 24.6% | 24.7% | -0.1% | ✓ |
| Koper win | 56.3% | 52.4% | +3.9% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.3% | 56.6% | +1.6% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35.9% | 35.6% | +0.2% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 57.9% | 57.1% | +0.8% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.8% | 38.4% | -3.5% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Radomlje 45.8 / Koper 46.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Radomlje vs Koper in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.