Celje vs Aluminij
Prva liga, Slovenia · 2026-10-10 · 17:30 CET
WLLDW
DWDLLThe score model made a Celje win the most likely outcome at 69%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 67%). It finished 1:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Celje 2.47 – 0.97 Aluminij.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celje win | 69.0% | 59.9% | +9.1% | ✓ |
| Draw | 19.1% | 21.8% | -2.7% | ✗ |
| Aluminij win | 11.9% | 18.3% | -6.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86.8% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66.8% | 61.6% | +5.2% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 45.0% | 41.1% | +3.9% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 58.0% | 58.3% | -0.3% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 79.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 42.0% | 42.0% | -0.0% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Celje 45.9 / Aluminij 35.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.