Radomlje vs O. Ljubljana
Prva liga, Slovenia · 2026-08-29 · 17:30 CET
LDLLL
DWWWLThe score model made an O. Ljubljana win the most likely outcome at 52%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 50%). It finished 0:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Radomlje 1.00 – 1.69 O. Ljubljana.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Radomlje win | 21.3% | 23.7% | -2.4% | ✗ |
| Draw | 26.3% | 26.9% | -0.6% | ✓ |
| O. Ljubljana win | 52.5% | 49.4% | +3.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.0% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.3% | 51.5% | -1.2% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.3% | 30.7% | -2.4% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 52.5% | 53.9% | -1.4% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.4% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 27.1% | 35.5% | -8.4% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Radomlje 45.9 / O. Ljubljana 46.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.