Maribor vs Bravo
Prva liga, Slovenia · 2026-08-23 · 20:15 CET
DWDWD
WLWDDThe score model makes a Maribor win the most likely outcome at 50%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 50%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 72.2% vs 61.0% implied (+11.3 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Maribor 1.64 – 1.02 Bravo.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Maribor win | 50.5% | 55.5% | -5.0% |
| Draw | 27.3% | 23.8% | +3.5% |
| Bravo win | 22.2% | 20.7% | +1.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.8% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.7% | 59.5% | -9.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.8% | 39.0% | -11.3% |
| Both teams to score | 52.9% | 58.3% | -5.4% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 77.1% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 38.0% | 40.6% | -2.6% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Maribor 46.8 / Bravo 46.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.