Maribor vs Bravo
Prva liga, Slovenia · 2026-08-23 · 20:15 CET
WDDWD
WDDWWThe score model made a Maribor win the most likely outcome at 51%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 49%). It finished 3:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Maribor 1.64 – 1.01 Bravo.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maribor win | 50.6% | 55.7% | -5.1% | ✓ |
| Draw | 27.2% | 23.7% | +3.5% | ✗ |
| Bravo win | 22.2% | 20.6% | +1.6% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.4% | 60.9% | -11.5% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.5% | 40.5% | -13.0% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 52.6% | 59.8% | -7.2% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 76.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.7% | 41.7% | -4.0% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Maribor 46.5 / Bravo 46.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.