Mura vs Koper
Prva liga, Slovenia · 2026-08-22 · 17:30 CET
LDDLD
WWWLWThe score model made a Koper win the most likely outcome at 52%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 52%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Mura 1.03 – 1.71 Koper.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mura win | 21.5% | 29.2% | -7.7% | ✗ |
| Draw | 26.4% | 26.5% | -0.1% | ✗ |
| Koper win | 52.1% | 44.3% | +7.8% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.1% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.7% | 54.7% | -3.0% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.5% | 33.8% | -4.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 54.0% | 58.0% | -4.1% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 76.3% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.9% | 37.3% | -0.4% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Mura 46.5 / Koper 46.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.