O. Ljubljana vs Nafta
Prva liga, Slovenia · 2026-08-21 · 20:15 CET
LLWLD
LWWDLThe score model makes a O. Ljubljana win the most likely outcome at 61%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 49%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT under 1.5 goals — 73.5% vs 61.7% implied (+11.8 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: O. Ljubljana 1.84 – 0.80 Nafta.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| O. Ljubljana win | 60.9% | 59.5% | +1.4% |
| Draw | 24.6% | 22.8% | +1.7% |
| Nafta win | 14.5% | 17.7% | -3.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.3% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.2% | 55.6% | -6.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.3% | 34.8% | -7.5% |
| Both teams to score | 47.5% | 53.4% | -5.8% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.3% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 26.5% | 38.3% | -11.8% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: O. Ljubljana 46.9 / Nafta 18.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.