O. Ljubljana vs Nafta
Prva liga, Slovenia · 2026-08-21 · 20:15 CET
DWWWL
LLWWLThe score model made an O. Ljubljana win the most likely outcome at 61%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 49%). It finished 1:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: O. Ljubljana 1.84 – 0.80 Nafta.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| O. Ljubljana win | 60.9% | 56.0% | +4.9% | ✓ |
| Draw | 24.6% | 24.7% | -0.1% | ✗ |
| Nafta win | 14.5% | 19.3% | -4.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.3% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.2% | 50.5% | -1.3% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.3% | 30.0% | -2.7% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 47.6% | 50.8% | -3.2% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.3% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 26.5% | 34.6% | -8.0% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: O. Ljubljana 46.6 / Nafta 18.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.