Radomlje vs Aluminij
Prva liga, Slovenia · 2026-08-16 · 17:30 CET
LDLLL
LDDWDThe score model made a Radomlje win the most likely outcome at 46%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 56%). It finished 1:3 (HT 1:3) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Radomlje 1.67 – 1.27 Aluminij.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Radomlje win | 45.7% | 39.7% | +5.9% | ✗ |
| Draw | 26.4% | 26.9% | -0.6% | ✗ |
| Aluminij win | 27.9% | 33.3% | -5.4% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.1% | 56.0% | +0.2% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33.8% | 35.2% | -1.5% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 59.4% | 59.3% | +0.1% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.2% | 38.1% | -5.9% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Radomlje 46.1 / Aluminij 30.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.