Radomlje vs Aluminij
Prva liga, Slovenia · 2026-08-16 · 17:30 CET
WLDLW
DLDLDThe score model makes a Radomlje win the most likely outcome at 46%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 56%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Radomlje win — 45.9% vs 39.7% implied (+6.1 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Radomlje 1.67 – 1.26 Aluminij.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Radomlje win | 45.9% | 39.7% | +6.1% |
| Draw | 26.2% | 27.2% | -1.0% |
| Aluminij win | 27.9% | 33.1% | -5.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.1% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.2% | 55.2% | +1.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33.8% | 35.2% | -1.5% |
| Both teams to score | 59.3% | 59.2% | +0.1% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.5% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.3% | 37.8% | -5.5% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Radomlje 46.3 / Aluminij 30.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.