Koper vs Bravo
Prva liga, Slovenia · 2026-08-16 · 20:15 CET
WWWLW
WDDWWThe score model made a Koper win the most likely outcome at 51%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 57%). It finished 0:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Koper 1.79 – 1.18 Bravo.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Koper win | 50.6% | 52.9% | -2.3% | ✗ |
| Draw | 25.4% | 24.2% | +1.2% | ✓ |
| Bravo win | 24.0% | 22.9% | +1.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.8% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.1% | 60.9% | -3.8% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34.7% | 40.5% | -5.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 58.9% | 61.2% | -2.4% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 79.1% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 40.3% | 41.7% | -1.4% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Koper 46.1 / Bravo 46 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.