Koper vs Bravo
Prva liga, Slovenia · 2026-08-16 · 20:15 CET
WWDDL
WWLWDThe score model makes a Koper win the most likely outcome at 51%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 57%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 65.2% vs 59.0% implied (+6.2 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Koper 1.80 – 1.18 Bravo.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Koper win | 50.8% | 53.1% | -2.3% |
| Draw | 25.2% | 24.1% | +1.1% |
| Bravo win | 24.0% | 22.8% | +1.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.8% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.2% | 61.3% | -4.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34.8% | 41.0% | -6.2% |
| Both teams to score | 58.9% | 61.2% | -2.4% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 79.3% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 40.6% | 42.2% | -1.7% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Koper 46.3 / Bravo 46.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.