O. Ljubljana vs Maribor
Prva liga, Slovenia · 2026-08-15 · 20:15 CET
LLLWL
WDWDWThe score model makes a O. Ljubljana win the most likely outcome at 37%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 40%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT under 1.5 goals — 75.8% vs 66.3% implied (+9.5 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: O. Ljubljana 1.20 – 1.09 Maribor.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| O. Ljubljana win | 37.2% | 28.7% | +8.5% |
| Draw | 30.9% | 27.6% | +3.3% |
| Maribor win | 31.9% | 43.7% | -11.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67.8% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40.0% | 49.1% | -9.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19.7% | 28.7% | -8.9% |
| Both teams to score | 47.5% | 54.1% | -6.6% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 64.6% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 24.2% | 33.7% | -9.5% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: O. Ljubljana 46.5 / Maribor 46.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.