O. Ljubljana vs Maribor
Prva liga, Slovenia · 2026-08-15 · 20:15 CET
DWWWL
WDDWDThe score model made an O. Ljubljana win the most likely outcome at 37%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 40%). It finished 1:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: O. Ljubljana 1.19 – 1.09 Maribor.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| O. Ljubljana win | 37.1% | 28.4% | +8.7% | ✗ |
| Draw | 31.0% | 27.9% | +3.1% | ✓ |
| Maribor win | 31.9% | 43.7% | -11.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39.9% | 49.3% | -9.4% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19.7% | 29.0% | -9.4% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 47.5% | 54.6% | -7.1% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 64.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 24.2% | 34.0% | -9.8% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: O. Ljubljana 46.2 / Maribor 46.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.