Nafta vs Celje
Prva liga, Slovenia · 2026-08-15 · 18:00 CET
WLWWD
LWDDWThe score model makes an Celje win the most likely outcome at 63%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 64%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Celje win — 62.8% vs 54.4% implied (+8.5 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Nafta 1.06 – 2.22 Celje.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nafta win | 16.1% | 22.4% | -6.3% |
| Draw | 21.1% | 23.2% | -2.1% |
| Celje win | 62.8% | 54.4% | +8.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.7% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.6% | 62.6% | +0.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41.4% | 42.0% | -0.6% |
| Both teams to score | 59.0% | 61.2% | -2.2% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 78.3% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 40.2% | 42.6% | -2.4% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Nafta 17.5 / Celje 45.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.