Nafta vs Celje
Prva liga, Slovenia · 2026-08-15 · 18:00 CET
LLWWL
LWLLDThe score model made a Celje win the most likely outcome at 63%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 64%). It finished 1:3 (HT 1:2) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Nafta 1.06 – 2.22 Celje.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nafta win | 16.1% | 25.7% | -9.6% | ✗ |
| Draw | 21.1% | 24.7% | -3.6% | ✗ |
| Celje win | 62.8% | 49.6% | +13.2% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.6% | 61.6% | +1.9% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41.4% | 41.4% | +0.0% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 59.0% | 62.6% | -3.6% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 78.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 40.2% | 42.0% | -1.8% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Nafta 17.4 / Celje 45.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.