Rangers vs Kilmarnock
Premiership, Scotland · 2026-10-10 · 16:00 CET
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LDWDLThe score model made a Rangers win the most likely outcome at 76%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 69%). It finished 3:1 (HT 3:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Rangers 2.71 – 0.85 Kilmarnock.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rangers win | 76.4% | 82.8% | -6.3% | ✓ |
| Draw | 14.5% | 11.3% | +3.2% | ✗ |
| Kilmarnock win | 9.0% | 5.9% | +3.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 87.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 69.0% | 70.8% | -1.8% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 47.6% | 50.5% | -2.9% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 53.5% | 46.3% | +7.2% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 81.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 45.1% | 49.1% | -4.0% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Rangers 44.9 / Kilmarnock 44.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.