Hearts vs St. Mirren
Premiership, Scotland · 2026-10-10 · 16:00 CET
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WLLLLThe score model made a Hearts win the most likely outcome at 64%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). It finished 5:0 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Hearts 1.82 – 0.70 St. Mirren.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hearts win | 63.9% | 64.5% | -0.7% | ✓ |
| Draw | 22.5% | 19.8% | +2.7% | ✗ |
| St. Mirren win | 13.6% | 15.7% | -2.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.3% | 62.1% | -15.8% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.8% | 41.3% | -16.5% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 42.6% | 56.1% | -13.5% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.1% | 43.2% | -15.1% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Hearts 44.8 / St. Mirren 46.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.