Falkirk vs Dundee FC
Premiership, Scotland · 2026-10-10 · 16:00 CET
LDWDL
LDLWWThe score model made a Falkirk win the most likely outcome at 48%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 56%). It finished 1:2 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Falkirk 1.70 – 1.22 Dundee FC.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Falkirk win | 48.4% | 47.1% | +1.3% | ✗ |
| Draw | 24.4% | 26.4% | -1.9% | ✗ |
| Dundee FC win | 27.2% | 26.5% | +0.7% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.8% | 54.1% | +1.7% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33.4% | 33.2% | +0.2% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 57.8% | 56.9% | +0.9% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 78.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 39.1% | 36.7% | +2.4% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Falkirk 28.9 / Dundee FC 43 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.