Dundee Utd vs Hibernian
Premiership, Scotland · 2026-10-10 · 16:00 CET
WLDWW
LLLDLThe score model made a Hibernian win the most likely outcome at 39%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 50%). It finished 1:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Dundee Utd 1.29 – 1.38 Hibernian.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dundee Utd win | 34.8% | 35.0% | -0.3% | ✓ |
| Draw | 26.5% | 26.6% | -0.1% | ✗ |
| Hibernian win | 38.7% | 38.3% | +0.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.8% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.9% | 58.0% | -8.1% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.9% | 37.2% | -9.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 54.5% | 61.9% | -7.4% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.2% | 39.6% | -5.4% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Dundee Utd 40.2 / Hibernian 44.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.