Kilmarnock vs Dundee Utd
Premiership, Scotland · 2026-08-29 · 16:00 CET
LLDWD
LWLDWThe score model made a Kilmarnock win the most likely outcome at 45%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 56%). It finished 0:4 (HT 0:3) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Kilmarnock 1.64 – 1.29 Dundee Utd.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kilmarnock win | 45.1% | 38.1% | +7.0% | ✗ |
| Draw | 25.0% | 26.7% | -1.6% | ✗ |
| Dundee Utd win | 29.9% | 35.2% | -5.4% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.1% | 56.5% | -0.4% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33.7% | 36.2% | -2.5% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 58.8% | 59.7% | -0.9% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.6% | 38.5% | -5.9% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Kilmarnock 43.6 / Dundee Utd 39.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.