Hearts vs St Johnstone
Premiership, Scotland · 2026-08-29 · 16:00 CET
WWWLD
LDWLDThe score model made a Hearts win the most likely outcome at 70%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 53%). It finished 2:1 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Hearts 2.09 – 0.69 St Johnstone.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hearts win | 69.6% | 54.9% | +14.7% | ✓ |
| Draw | 19.6% | 24.3% | -4.7% | ✗ |
| St Johnstone win | 10.8% | 20.8% | -10.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.5% | 54.3% | -1.8% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.3% | 33.5% | -3.2% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 44.0% | 54.9% | -11.0% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.8% | 36.6% | -4.7% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Hearts 43.7 / St Johnstone 19.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.