Celtic vs Falkirk
Premiership, Scotland · 2026-08-29 · 16:00 CET
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LLDWDThe score model made a Celtic win the most likely outcome at 79%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 70%). It finished 2:1 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Celtic 2.83 – 0.79 Falkirk.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celtic win | 79.1% | 77.0% | +2.1% | ✓ |
| Draw | 13.4% | 14.5% | -1.1% | ✗ |
| Falkirk win | 7.5% | 8.5% | -1.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 87.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70.0% | 68.7% | +1.3% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 48.9% | 48.5% | +0.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 51.7% | 51.9% | -0.2% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 85.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 52.9% | 47.5% | +5.5% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Celtic 43.8 / Falkirk 26.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.