Dundee Utd vs Dundee FC
Premiership, Scotland · 2026-08-22 · 18:45 CET
LDDDL
WLWLWThe score model makes a Dundee Utd win the most likely outcome at 49%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 53%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Dundee Utd win — 48.6% vs 44.6% implied (+4.1 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Dundee Utd 1.65 – 1.16 Dundee FC.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dundee Utd win | 48.6% | 44.6% | +4.1% |
| Draw | 25.1% | 27.4% | -2.2% |
| Dundee FC win | 26.3% | 28.1% | -1.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.3% | 50.8% | +2.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31.0% | 30.5% | +0.5% |
| Both teams to score | 55.8% | 55.5% | +0.3% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.1% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.9% | 34.9% | -3.0% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Dundee Utd 39.5 / Dundee FC 42.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.