Dundee Utd vs Dundee FC
Premiership, Scotland · 2026-08-22 · 18:45 CET
LWLDW
WLDLWThe score model made a Dundee Utd win the most likely outcome at 49%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 53%). It finished 0:2 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Dundee Utd 1.65 – 1.16 Dundee FC.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dundee Utd win | 48.6% | 45.1% | +3.5% | ✗ |
| Draw | 25.1% | 27.7% | -2.5% | ✗ |
| Dundee FC win | 26.3% | 27.3% | -1.0% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.3% | 53.0% | +0.2% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31.0% | 32.4% | -1.4% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 55.8% | 57.6% | -1.8% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.9% | 35.9% | -4.0% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Dundee Utd 39.3 / Dundee FC 42.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.