Stranraer vs Elgin City
League Two, Scotland · 2026-11-21 · 16:00 CET
WWDWW
WDWLLThe score model makes a Stranraer win the most likely outcome at 52%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 48%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 73.5% vs 64.5% implied (+9.0 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Stranraer 1.62 – 0.98 Elgin City.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stranraer win | 51.7% | 44.3% | +7.4% |
| Draw | 26.3% | 25.7% | +0.6% |
| Elgin City win | 22.0% | 30.0% | -8.0% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.1% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.3% | 56.5% | -8.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.5% | 35.5% | -9.0% |
| Both teams to score | 50.9% | 59.5% | -8.5% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.4% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.0% | 37.6% | -5.6% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Stranraer 48.7 / Elgin City 48.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Stranraer vs Elgin City in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.