Edinburgh City vs Kelty Hearts
League Two, Scotland · 2026-11-21 · 16:00 CET
LDWDL
LWLWLThe score model makes an Edinburgh City win the most likely outcome at 46%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 59%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT over 1.5 goals — 42.4% vs 37.6% implied (+4.8 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Edinburgh City 1.72 – 1.34 Kelty Hearts.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Edinburgh City win | 45.7% | 41.3% | +4.4% |
| Draw | 25.0% | 26.3% | -1.3% |
| Kelty Hearts win | 29.3% | 32.4% | -3.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.6% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.9% | 56.5% | +2.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36.5% | 35.5% | +1.0% |
| Both teams to score | 61.2% | 59.7% | +1.5% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 76.5% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 42.4% | 37.6% | +4.8% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Edinburgh City 42.1 / Kelty Hearts 12.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Edinburgh City vs Kelty Hearts in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.