Annan vs Forfar Athletic
League Two, Scotland · 2026-11-21 · 16:00 CET
LLLLW
LLLDWThe score model makes an Annan win the most likely outcome at 41%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 49%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 72.7% vs 64.5% implied (+8.2 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Annan 1.42 – 1.22 Forfar Athletic.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Annan win | 40.9% | 47.2% | -6.3% |
| Draw | 27.6% | 25.5% | +2.1% |
| Forfar Athletic win | 31.5% | 27.2% | +4.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.8% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.2% | 56.5% | -7.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.3% | 35.5% | -8.2% |
| Both teams to score | 54.2% | 58.6% | -4.3% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.1% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.8% | 37.6% | -4.8% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Annan 34 / Forfar Athletic 48.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Annan vs Forfar Athletic in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.