Forfar Athletic vs Elgin City
League Two, Scotland · 2026-10-10 · 16:00 CET
DLLWL
WLLLWThe score model makes a Forfar Athletic win the most likely outcome at 39%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 48%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Forfar Athletic win — 39.2% vs 25.4% implied (+13.9 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Forfar Athletic 1.37 – 1.23 Elgin City.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forfar Athletic win | 39.2% | 25.4% | +13.9% |
| Draw | 28.0% | 24.6% | +3.4% |
| Elgin City win | 32.8% | 50.1% | -17.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.9% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.0% | 55.9% | -7.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.3% | 35.8% | -9.6% |
| Both teams to score | 53.5% | 57.4% | -3.9% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.4% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.6% | 38.3% | -3.7% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Forfar Athletic 49.2 / Elgin City 47.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.