Edinburgh City vs Spartans
League Two, Scotland · 2026-10-10 · 16:00 CET
LWWDL
WWLLWThe score model made a Spartans win the most likely outcome at 40%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 62%). It finished 1:3 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Edinburgh City 1.53 – 1.66 Spartans.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edinburgh City win | 34.8% | 35.1% | -0.3% | ✗ |
| Draw | 24.8% | 27.0% | -2.2% | ✗ |
| Spartans win | 40.4% | 37.9% | +2.5% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.6% | 55.7% | +5.9% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39.3% | 35.1% | +4.3% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 64.0% | 59.6% | +4.4% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.6% | 37.9% | -3.3% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Edinburgh City 41.4 / Spartans 46.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.