Annan vs Stranraer
League Two, Scotland · 2026-10-10 · 16:00 CET
WLWLL
WWWWDThe score model makes an Annan win the most likely outcome at 36%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 40%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 2.5 goals — 60.3% vs 45.5% implied (+14.8 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Annan 1.16 – 1.12 Stranraer.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Annan win | 35.9% | 35.0% | +0.9% |
| Draw | 30.3% | 26.5% | +3.8% |
| Stranraer win | 33.8% | 38.6% | -4.7% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67.2% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39.7% | 54.5% | -14.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19.5% | 33.9% | -14.4% |
| Both teams to score | 47.0% | 58.3% | -11.3% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.7% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.3% | 36.6% | -8.3% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Annan 31.8 / Stranraer 47.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.