Spartans vs Clyde
League Two, Scotland · 2026-08-29 · 16:00 CET
DWWLL
DWWDLThe score model made a Spartans win the most likely outcome at 44%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 54%). It finished 3:3 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Spartans 1.57 – 1.27 Clyde.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spartans win | 43.5% | 39.2% | +4.3% | ✗ |
| Draw | 26.3% | 26.2% | +0.1% | ✓ |
| Clyde win | 30.2% | 34.6% | -4.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.9% | 57.9% | -3.9% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31.6% | 36.9% | -5.2% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 57.7% | 61.1% | -3.4% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.9% | 39.4% | -6.5% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Spartans 45.6 / Clyde 47.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.