Elgin City vs Stirling
League Two, Scotland · 2026-08-29 · 16:00 CET
WLLLW
LLLDWThe score model made an Elgin City win the most likely outcome at 52%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 62%). It finished 4:0 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Elgin City 1.91 – 1.27 Stirling.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elgin City win | 51.9% | 49.6% | +2.3% | ✓ |
| Draw | 23.6% | 25.8% | -2.2% | ✗ |
| Stirling win | 24.6% | 24.7% | -0.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.6% | 56.9% | +4.7% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39.3% | 36.3% | +3.1% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 61.9% | 58.4% | +3.5% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 78.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 45.2% | 38.9% | +6.3% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Elgin City 46.5 / Stirling 40.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.