Annan vs Dumbarton
League Two, Scotland · 2026-08-29 · 16:00 CET
WLWLL
LWLWWThe score model made an Annan win the most likely outcome at 46%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 54%). It finished 2:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Annan 1.62 – 1.21 Dumbarton.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annan win | 46.1% | 47.8% | -1.8% | ✓ |
| Draw | 26.1% | 25.8% | +0.2% | ✗ |
| Dumbarton win | 27.9% | 26.3% | +1.6% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.7% | 56.7% | -3.0% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31.4% | 35.9% | -4.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 57.0% | 59.0% | -2.0% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.1% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 39.3% | 38.9% | +0.4% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Annan 29.3 / Dumbarton 35 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.