Stirling vs Stranraer
League Two, Scotland · 2026-08-22 · 16:00 CET
LLLDW
WWWWDThe score model made a Stirling win the most likely outcome at 39%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 47%). It finished 2:2 (HT 0:2) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Stirling 1.35 – 1.20 Stranraer.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stirling win | 39.3% | 31.7% | +7.6% | ✗ |
| Draw | 28.4% | 26.8% | +1.6% | ✓ |
| Stranraer win | 32.3% | 41.4% | -9.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.9% | 53.2% | -6.3% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25.4% | 32.8% | -7.4% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 52.7% | 57.4% | -4.7% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.6% | 36.3% | +0.2% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Stirling 40.2 / Stranraer 46.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.