Stirling vs Stranraer
League Two, Scotland · 2026-08-22 · 16:00 CET
DDWLL
DWLLWThe score model makes a Stirling win the most likely outcome at 39%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 47%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 74.6% vs 67.9% implied (+6.8 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Stirling 1.35 – 1.20 Stranraer.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stirling win | 39.3% | 39.5% | -0.2% |
| Draw | 28.4% | 27.0% | +1.4% |
| Stranraer win | 32.3% | 33.5% | -1.3% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.2% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.9% | 52.8% | -5.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25.4% | 32.1% | -6.8% |
| Both teams to score | 52.7% | 56.8% | -4.0% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.2% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.6% | 35.7% | +0.9% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Stirling 40.4 / Stranraer 46.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.