Edinburgh City vs Annan
League Two, Scotland · 2026-08-22 · 16:00 CET
DLWWD
WLWLLThe score model made an Edinburgh City win the most likely outcome at 41%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 63%). It finished 1:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Edinburgh City 1.70 – 1.55 Annan.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edinburgh City win | 40.8% | 42.6% | -1.8% | ✓ |
| Draw | 24.6% | 26.1% | -1.5% | ✗ |
| Annan win | 34.6% | 31.3% | +3.3% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.3% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.1% | 54.4% | +8.7% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40.9% | 32.9% | +8.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 65.2% | 57.8% | +7.4% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 76.4% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 42.3% | 36.6% | +5.7% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Edinburgh City 39.2 / Annan 28.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.