Clyde vs Forfar Athletic
League Two, Scotland · 2026-08-22 · 16:00 CET
DWWDL
DLLWLThe score model made a Clyde win the most likely outcome at 46%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 44%). It finished 3:0 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Clyde 1.43 – 1.01 Forfar Athletic.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clyde win | 46.0% | 56.1% | -10.1% | ✓ |
| Draw | 28.5% | 23.9% | +4.5% | ✗ |
| Forfar Athletic win | 25.6% | 20.0% | +5.6% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.0% | 51.7% | -7.8% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22.9% | 31.0% | -8.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 49.2% | 51.6% | -2.5% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.9% | 35.8% | -0.9% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Clyde 46.7 / Forfar Athletic 47.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.