Clyde vs Forfar Athletic
League Two, Scotland · 2026-08-22 · 16:00 CET
DLWLW
LLWDWThe score model makes a Clyde win the most likely outcome at 46%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 44%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 77.1% vs 66.1% implied (+11.0 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Clyde 1.43 – 1.00 Forfar Athletic.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Clyde win | 46.0% | 56.3% | -10.4% |
| Draw | 28.5% | 24.2% | +4.3% |
| Forfar Athletic win | 25.6% | 19.5% | +6.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70.9% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.0% | 54.5% | -10.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22.9% | 33.9% | -11.0% |
| Both teams to score | 49.1% | 54.0% | -4.9% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.8% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.9% | 37.0% | -2.1% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Clyde 46.9 / Forfar Athletic 47.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.