Peterhead vs East Kilbride
League One, Scotland · 2026-11-21 · 16:00 CET
WLWLL
DWLWWThe score model makes an East Kilbride win the most likely outcome at 52%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 50%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 72.0% vs 60.8% implied (+11.2 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Peterhead 1.01 – 1.66 East Kilbride.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peterhead win | 22.3% | 23.2% | -1.0% |
| Draw | 25.9% | 23.5% | +2.4% |
| East Kilbride win | 51.8% | 53.2% | -1.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.4% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.0% | 60.2% | -10.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.0% | 39.2% | -11.2% |
| Both teams to score | 52.3% | 59.7% | -7.3% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.5% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.3% | 40.6% | -7.3% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Peterhead 34.8 / East Kilbride 13.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Peterhead vs East Kilbride in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.