Montrose vs Alloa
League One, Scotland · 2026-11-21 · 18:30 CET
DWDLL
WLLLLThe score model makes an Alloa win the most likely outcome at 39%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 49%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 73.1% vs 66.2% implied (+6.9 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Montrose 1.25 – 1.37 Alloa.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Montrose win | 33.2% | 40.8% | -7.6% |
| Draw | 27.9% | 26.5% | +1.3% |
| Alloa win | 39.0% | 32.7% | +6.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.7% | 54.5% | -5.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.9% | 33.8% | -6.9% |
| Both teams to score | 54.1% | 58.6% | -4.5% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.9% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.4% | 37.1% | -5.7% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Montrose 49.5 / Alloa 49.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Montrose vs Alloa in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.