Peterhead vs Queen of South
League One, Scotland · 2026-10-10 · 16:00 CET
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DLLWWThe score model made a Queen of South win the most likely outcome at 42%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 61%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Peterhead 1.46 – 1.67 Queen of South.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peterhead win | 32.5% | 44.5% | -12.0% | ✗ |
| Draw | 25.8% | 25.9% | -0.1% | ✗ |
| Queen of South win | 41.7% | 29.6% | +12.0% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.1% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.6% | 59.2% | +1.4% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38.3% | 38.6% | -0.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 63.5% | 61.7% | +1.8% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.8% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.8% | 40.7% | -6.9% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Peterhead 31.4 / Queen of South 47.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.