Cove Rangers vs East Fife
League One, Scotland · 2026-10-10 · 16:00 CET
DLLLD
DDLLDThe score model made a Cove Rangers win the most likely outcome at 52%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 43%). It finished 1:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Cove Rangers 1.54 – 0.87 East Fife.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cove Rangers win | 51.8% | 42.1% | +9.7% | ✗ |
| Draw | 28.3% | 28.2% | +0.1% | ✓ |
| East Fife win | 20.0% | 29.7% | -9.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43.1% | 48.8% | -5.6% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22.2% | 28.4% | -6.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 46.8% | 53.9% | -7.1% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 62.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 23.6% | 33.6% | -9.9% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Cove Rangers 45 / East Fife 29.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.