Alloa vs Hamilton
League One, Scotland · 2026-10-10 · 16:00 CET
DLLLL
WWWWWThe score model made a Hamilton win the most likely outcome at 41%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). It finished 0:3 (HT 0:3) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Alloa 1.14 – 1.39 Hamilton.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alloa win | 29.5% | 23.3% | +6.2% | ✗ |
| Draw | 29.2% | 26.1% | +3.1% | ✗ |
| Hamilton win | 41.3% | 50.6% | -9.3% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.4% | 52.1% | -5.7% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.9% | 31.5% | -6.6% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 52.4% | 54.5% | -2.1% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.8% | 36.3% | -6.5% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Alloa 49.4 / Hamilton 36.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.