Montrose vs Queen of South
League One, Scotland · 2026-08-29 · 16:00 CET
WWWWL
WDLLWThe score model made a Queen of South win the most likely outcome at 42%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 61%). It finished 2:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Montrose 1.46 – 1.68 Queen of South.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montrose win | 32.3% | 44.4% | -12.1% | ✓ |
| Draw | 26.1% | 26.3% | -0.3% | ✗ |
| Queen of South win | 41.6% | 29.2% | +12.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.7% | 54.7% | +6.0% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38.3% | 33.9% | +4.4% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 63.7% | 57.9% | +5.8% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 39.9% | 37.6% | +2.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Montrose 46.2 / Queen of South 45.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.