Hamilton vs Cove Rangers
League One, Scotland · 2026-08-29 · 16:00 CET
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LDLLLThe score model made a Hamilton win the most likely outcome at 53%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 51%). It finished 1:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Hamilton 1.71 – 1.00 Cove Rangers.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hamilton win | 52.7% | 58.4% | -5.7% | ✓ |
| Draw | 26.6% | 22.9% | +3.7% | ✗ |
| Cove Rangers win | 20.7% | 18.7% | +2.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.7% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.9% | 54.3% | -3.3% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.9% | 33.3% | -4.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 53.2% | 53.0% | +0.2% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.1% | 37.3% | -4.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Hamilton 35.5 / Cove Rangers 43.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.