Alloa vs Peterhead
League One, Scotland · 2026-08-29 · 16:00 CET
DDLLL
DLLLLThe score model made an Alloa win the most likely outcome at 58%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 55%). It finished 1:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Alloa 1.91 – 0.99 Peterhead.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alloa win | 57.7% | 47.5% | +10.2% | ✗ |
| Draw | 24.4% | 26.7% | -2.2% | ✓ |
| Peterhead win | 17.9% | 25.8% | -8.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.3% | 48.8% | +6.5% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33.0% | 28.1% | +4.9% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 54.7% | 52.0% | +2.7% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.0% | 33.3% | -4.2% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Alloa 48.6 / Peterhead 29.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.