Queen of South vs Alloa
League One, Scotland · 2026-08-22 · 16:00 CET
DWDLL
WLDLWThe score model makes a Queen of South win the most likely outcome at 36%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 50%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT under 1.5 goals — 69.7% vs 64.3% implied (+5.4 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Queen of South 1.36 – 1.33 Alloa.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Queen of South win | 36.4% | 36.0% | +0.3% |
| Draw | 28.5% | 27.8% | +0.7% |
| Alloa win | 35.1% | 36.2% | -1.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.2% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.3% | 52.1% | -1.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.3% | 31.9% | -3.6% |
| Both teams to score | 55.9% | 57.0% | -1.1% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.0% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.3% | 35.7% | -5.4% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Queen of South 45.7 / Alloa 48.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.