East Fife vs Hamilton
League One, Scotland · 2026-08-22 · 16:00 CET
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DWWWWThe score model made a Hamilton win the most likely outcome at 59%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 51%). It finished 0:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: East Fife 0.87 – 1.84 Hamilton.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| East Fife win | 16.2% | 24.5% | -8.3% | ✗ |
| Draw | 24.7% | 27.8% | -3.1% | ✓ |
| Hamilton win | 59.1% | 47.8% | +11.3% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.5% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.9% | 48.4% | +2.6% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.9% | 28.5% | +0.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 50.1% | 51.9% | -1.8% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.1% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.0% | 33.2% | +0.9% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: East Fife 25.9 / Hamilton 35 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.