Cove Rangers vs Peterhead
League One, Scotland · 2026-08-22 · 16:00 CET
LDLLL
DLLLLThe score model made a Cove Rangers win the most likely outcome at 50%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 54%). It finished 3:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Cove Rangers 1.71 – 1.12 Peterhead.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cove Rangers win | 49.8% | 31.3% | +18.4% | ✓ |
| Draw | 26.4% | 27.7% | -1.3% | ✗ |
| Peterhead win | 23.8% | 40.9% | -17.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.8% | 48.0% | +5.8% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31.5% | 27.2% | +4.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 56.5% | 52.8% | +3.6% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.8% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.5% | 32.4% | +1.1% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Cove Rangers 43.2 / Peterhead 28.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.