Cove Rangers vs Peterhead
League One, Scotland · 2026-08-22 · 16:00 CET
WDDLL
LLLWWThe score model makes a Cove Rangers win the most likely outcome at 50%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 54%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Cove Rangers win — 49.8% vs 39.1% implied (+10.6 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Cove Rangers 1.71 – 1.12 Peterhead.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cove Rangers win | 49.8% | 39.1% | +10.6% |
| Draw | 26.4% | 27.2% | -0.8% |
| Peterhead win | 23.8% | 33.6% | -9.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.6% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.8% | 48.9% | +4.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31.5% | 28.4% | +3.1% |
| Both teams to score | 56.5% | 53.2% | +3.3% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.8% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.5% | 32.7% | +0.8% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Cove Rangers 43.4 / Peterhead 28.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.