Raith vs Partick Thistle
Championship, Scotland · 2026-11-21 · 16:00 CET
DLWDL
DWLWWThe score model makes a Partick Thistle win the most likely outcome at 34%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 42%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 78.9% vs 72.3% implied (+6.6 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Raith 1.17 – 1.18 Partick Thistle.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raith win | 33.7% | 30.9% | +2.8% |
| Draw | 31.8% | 29.4% | +2.4% |
| Partick Thistle win | 34.5% | 39.7% | -5.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70.0% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.8% | 47.3% | -5.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21.1% | 27.7% | -6.6% |
| Both teams to score | 49.7% | 52.8% | -3.1% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 65.6% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.9% | 32.7% | -3.8% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Raith 49.5 / Partick Thistle 50.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Raith vs Partick Thistle in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.