Queen's Park vs Livingston
Championship, Scotland · 2026-11-21 · 16:00 CET
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DWWDWThe score model makes a Livingston win the most likely outcome at 54%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 43%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 77.9% vs 66.6% implied (+11.3 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Queen's Park 0.82 – 1.58 Livingston.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Queen's Park win | 17.8% | 14.9% | +2.9% |
| Draw | 28.6% | 21.1% | +7.6% |
| Livingston win | 53.5% | 64.0% | -10.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70.8% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43.0% | 54.3% | -11.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22.1% | 33.4% | -11.3% |
| Both teams to score | 46.1% | 49.6% | -3.5% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.4% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.9% | 37.0% | -6.1% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Queen's Park 50.5 / Livingston 23.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Queen's Park vs Livingston in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.