Dunfermline vs Morton
Championship, Scotland · 2026-11-21 · 16:00 CET
DWWWD
WWWWLThe score model makes a Dunfermline win the most likely outcome at 56%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 48%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 73.7% vs 64.6% implied (+9.1 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Dunfermline 1.73 – 0.86 Morton.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dunfermline win | 56.2% | 72.7% | -16.5% |
| Draw | 26.8% | 17.8% | +9.0% |
| Morton win | 17.0% | 9.5% | +7.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.8% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.0% | 56.3% | -8.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.3% | 35.4% | -9.1% |
| Both teams to score | 49.2% | 44.5% | +4.7% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.4% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.0% | 38.6% | -6.6% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Dunfermline 47.1 / Morton 49.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Dunfermline vs Morton in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.