Arbroath vs Stenhousemuir
Championship, Scotland · 2026-11-21 · 16:00 CET
LLLLW
LLLLWThe score model makes a Stenhousemuir win the most likely outcome at 37%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Stenhousemuir win — 37.4% vs 34.1% implied (+3.2 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Arbroath 1.20 – 1.31 Stenhousemuir.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arbroath win | 32.0% | 37.2% | -5.2% |
| Draw | 30.6% | 28.7% | +1.9% |
| Stenhousemuir win | 37.4% | 34.1% | +3.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.2% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.7% | 43.7% | +2.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.3% | 24.4% | -0.0% |
| Both teams to score | 52.8% | 50.0% | +2.7% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.0% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.5% | 30.1% | +1.4% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Arbroath 38.6 / Stenhousemuir 13.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Arbroath vs Stenhousemuir in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.