Queen's Park vs Inverness
Championship, Scotland · 2026-10-13 · 20:45 CET
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WDWWLThe score model made an Inverness win the most likely outcome at 43%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 43%). It finished 2:1 (HT 2:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Queen's Park 1.02 – 1.38 Inverness.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Queen's Park win | 25.8% | 18.8% | +7.0% | ✓ |
| Draw | 31.2% | 24.1% | +7.1% | ✗ |
| Inverness win | 43.0% | 57.2% | -14.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43.0% | 49.7% | -6.7% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22.1% | 28.8% | -6.6% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 49.9% | 49.2% | +0.7% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.2% | 33.8% | -3.6% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Queen's Park 47.9 / Inverness 15.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.