Partick Thistle vs Queen's Park
Championship, Scotland · 2026-08-29 · 16:00 CET
WWLDW
WWLLLThe score model made a Partick Thistle win the most likely outcome at 59%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 49%). It finished 0:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Partick Thistle 1.81 – 0.81 Queen's Park.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partick Thistle win | 59.2% | 71.0% | -11.8% | ✗ |
| Draw | 26.3% | 18.7% | +7.6% | ✓ |
| Queen's Park win | 14.4% | 10.3% | +4.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.7% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.9% | 55.7% | -6.8% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.0% | 34.7% | -7.7% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 48.5% | 45.4% | +3.1% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.8% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.8% | 37.7% | -4.0% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Partick Thistle 46.7 / Queen's Park 45.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.