Ayr vs Morton
Championship, Scotland · 2026-08-29 · 16:00 CET
LLWLW
LLLLLThe score model made an Ayr win the most likely outcome at 48%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 48%). It finished 1:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Ayr 1.57 – 1.02 Morton.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ayr win | 48.0% | 55.7% | -7.8% | ✗ |
| Draw | 29.6% | 25.5% | +4.0% | ✓ |
| Morton win | 22.5% | 18.7% | +3.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.9% | 46.7% | +1.2% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.2% | 26.6% | -0.4% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 52.8% | 47.6% | +5.2% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 35.9% | 32.1% | +3.8% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Ayr 45.2 / Morton 45.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.