Ayr vs Morton
Championship, Scotland · 2026-08-29 · 16:00 CET
LLWDL
LDLLLThe score model makes a Ayr win the most likely outcome at 48%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 48%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Draw — 29.8% vs 24.9% implied (+4.9 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Ayr 1.56 – 1.02 Morton.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ayr win | 47.7% | 56.3% | -8.6% |
| Draw | 29.8% | 24.9% | +4.9% |
| Morton win | 22.4% | 18.8% | +3.7% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.1% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.6% | 47.6% | +0.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.0% | 27.6% | -1.6% |
| Both teams to score | 52.7% | 47.8% | +4.9% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.8% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 35.6% | 32.4% | +3.3% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Ayr 45.7 / Morton 45.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.